ASML, the Dutch supplier that builds the world's only extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, beat its own guidance in the second quarter and lifted its full-year 2026 forecast for the second time this year — a read that matters less for the company itself than for its two largest Korean customers, Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), whose AI-memory buildout is substantially reflected in ASML's order book.
How big was the beat, and is the raise real?
ASML reported Q2 2026 total net sales of €9.3 billion ($10.6 billion) and net income of €2.9 billion ($3.3 billion), with a gross margin of 54.0% and basic EPS of €7.59 ($8.65), according to the company's press release. Both sales and margin cleared guidance, driven mainly by higher-than-expected Installed Base Management revenue of €2.762 billion — the servicing and upgrade business rather than new-tool shipments (ASML). The company shipped 86 new and 5 used lithography systems in the quarter.
The forward signal is the guidance. ASML now expects full-year 2026 net sales of €43–45 billion ($49–51 billion) at a 54–56% gross margin, up from the range it set after Q1 net sales of €8.8 billion (ASML). CNBC noted the shares rose about 4% on the raise, the second upgrade this year. For Q3, ASML guided to €11.0–12.0 billion ($12.5–13.7 billion) at a 55–57% margin (ASML).
One caveat for anyone hunting a demand number: ASML stopped publishing quarterly net bookings starting in Q1 2026, arguing lumpy large orders distort the underlying trend. So the order-momentum story now comes from management commentary, not a single headline figure.
Why this is a Korea story
ASML's CEO tied the strength to "ongoing AI-related investments" driving demand for "advanced Logic and Memory chips." That memory leg runs through Korea. SK Hynix holds more than 60% of the global high-bandwidth-memory (HBM) market and is a primary supplier to Nvidia, while Samsung is ramping its own EUV-based HBM output, per S&P Global Market Intelligence. Both firms use EUV — available only from ASML — to pattern advanced DRAM.
The scale of that dependence became concrete in March 2026, when SK Hynix placed what Tom's Hardware and TrendForce described as the largest single EUV order publicly disclosed by any ASML customer: roughly $8 billion, covering about 30 EUV machines through end-2027, aimed at HBM and advanced DRAM. When ASML says 2027 EUV capacity is nearly fully booked, orders of that kind are a meaningful part of the reason.
Capacity is being stretched to match. ASML said it plans a 30% low-NA EUV capacity increase in 2027 from roughly 65 systems in 2026, and is studying a further 30% for 2028. CFO Roger Dassen told Reuters (via Investing.com) that this planning already folds in expected demand from Terafab, Elon Musk's planned Texas chip facility, adding the company is "in dialogue with all our customers and we know…what their building plans are."
The open question
ASML's raise is a leading indicator, not a verdict: it captures what memory makers have committed to buy, not what they will earn. Korea's Hankyung framed the results as dispelling fears the chip cycle had already peaked. The real confirmation — or contradiction — arrives when SK Hynix and Samsung report June-quarter results in the coming weeks, and investors can compare ASML's booked-out EUV capacity against the two chipmakers' own HBM revenue and capital-spending plans.
This article is journalism, not investment advice. LineVest is not a registered investment adviser. Currency conversions use approximately €1 = $1.14 and are for reference only. Figures are sourced to ASML's Q2 2026 disclosures and the outlets cited inline.
